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2	Presentation Goals Introduce IWPC Interesting Numbers Top level look at various wireless markets Custom vs Commodity Components Paradigm Shifters Your Ultimate Customer Conclusions
3	IWPC ™ at a Glance IWPC ™ founded April, 1998 105+ Corporate Members, worldwide, growing monthly, representing ALL layers of the wireless industry supply chain 10,000’s wireless industry contacts, worldwide Completed more than 40 workshops, worldwide, to date, on “all-things-wireless” 7 on-going active discussion groups Active Wireless Industry research in China 10+ events planned for 2004, for numerous wireless applications and packaging technologies IWPC Asia ™ founded, 2003
4	IWPC Mission The Consortium is a pro-active organization of WIRELESS and RF PRODUCT OEM's and their SUPPLIERS. Our mission is to facilitate communication up and down the supply chain, to: Identify and Clarify New Markets and Products/Services Reduce Costs Improve Performance Decrease Time to Market ... with an emphasis on packaging and interconnect technologies. IWPC Definition of "Wireless Packaging": The physical embodiment of an electronic circuit at all levels, from device(s) up through the system, from the Intermediate Frequency section (IF) through and including the antenna.
5	Wireless Industry Supply Chain Model
6	IWPC MEMBERS (as of October 2003)
7	Wireless Industry Definitions Wireless technology is used to capture and deliver voice and data into/out-of networks This is known as “the access layer” of the network. Compared to the metro and transport layers of networks Networks (range) Personal (mm’s to meters) Short range (<100 meters) Medium range (<1000 meters) Long range (> 1000 meters) Satellite (100’s kilometers) For applications: Person to person Person to machine Machine to machine (potentially 10’s to 100’s billions “machines” to connect to the network – Lou Gerstner has said “trillions”)
8	Some Variables in a Radio Physical Layer (PHY) Frequency (100’s Mhz to 100+ Ghz) Air Interface Protocol (alphabet soup) Data rate (kbps to 100’s mbps) Power (Tx, Rx) (microwatts – 10’s watts) Volume (100’s to billions) Cost (penny’s to $10,000+’s each) Size (chip size to cabinet size) Weight (grams to tons)
9	Some Interesting Numbers 6,330,662,787 people, world population, 2003, Nov 18 ~90 million households, US By 2007, there will be ~2.7 billion handsets in use in the world (Source: Turner Broadcasting) ~30 million Bluetooth ™ chipsets shipped to date (Source: Cambridge Silicon) ~80% GSM % of cellular wireless market, worldwide In 2000, Television sets per 1000 people: China – 298, Finland – 692, United States – 830 (ITU) In 2003, worldwide market for telecom equipment, $300B; telecom services, $1,070B (ITU) In 2003, 650 million personal computers in use, 650 million internet users (ITU) In 2002, consumers paid $1+B for ringtone downloads In 2003, Nokia owns ~38% of handset market share, worldwide Microsoft Corp. is enabling 35+ Handset manufacturers, worldwide ~35% - percentage of worldwide handsets mfgr’d in China, 2003 ~120,000 base stations installed in the US Handset market -- ~$30 billion/year (bill of materials costs) Infrastructure market -- ~$2 billion/year (bill of materials costs) Fast internet represents ~3% of the bandwidth and 15% of the revenues and HDTV represents ~15% of the bandwidth and <3% of the revenue (Source: Brian Roberts, CEO, Comcast) HDTV data rate - ~19 MBPS uncompressed Voice data rate - ~ 28 KBPS 3G data rate: 2MBPS shared – typically, 150-350 kbps Broadband data rates: from 128 kbps (UK) to 100 mbps (Korea) Starting 2006, all returned handsets, are the responsibility of the handset manufacturer 377 – characteristic impedance of air
10	Portable and Mobile Wireless Devices (low frequency, low power, high volume, low cost) RF IDs (passive and active, mm range to 100’s meter range) Voice and data devices (handsets, PDAs, etc) Low, medium, high end devices Short range radio devices WLAN, 802.11x, (1-54 mbps) Bluetooth (~1 mbps, < 100 meters) ZigBee, 802.15.4x, (20-250 kbps, 10-75 meters) Low power radios (garage door openers, key fob radios) (10’s-100’s kbps) UWB, 802.15x, (up to 600 mbps, <<100 meters)
11	InfraStructure Equipment (low frequency, med-high power, med-low volume, med-high cost) Base Stations (ground based and tower top for mobile, portable & fixed applications) Personal (~10’s meters, aka access points) Pico (~10’s meters) Micro (~100’s meters) Macro (1000 meters) Competing with: Twisted pair (xDSL) Coax cable Fiber Power line Antennas (fixed, steerable, smart, many other configurations) Repeaters (network, personal, in-building coverage extenders) Last-mile broadband (fixed and portable applications) (proprietary standards, 802.16x, 802.20x) Satellite (special case of frequency, range, power)
12	Millimeterwave Equipment (med-high frequency, med-high power, med-low volume, higher cost) Point to point radios () (short and long range) Point to multi-point radios Cellular Backhaul radios Satellite terminals Automotive Radars and Sensors Sensors (eg: thru-wall security) () FCC just released 71-86 GHz and 92-95 GHz bands for gigabit data rate radio applications
13	Automotive (low, med & high frequency, low-med-high power, med-high volume, low-med cost) Inside the vehicle Vehicle to vehicle Vehicle to roadside Vehicle to satellite Convenience (ex: curb/child detectors) Safety (ex: Interactive adaptive cruise control radar) Emergency (ex: air bag deployment signal) Entertainment (ex: audio, video, info-fueling) Maintenance (ex: time for an oil change) Customer relationship management Location based services Many other applications… Forecast: Future vehicles will need to manage up to 18 different frequencies In 2003, Mercedes tells us that electronics represents 50% of the automotive bill of materials
14	Custom vs Commodity Components EMS procurement experts tell us that they prefer to order commodity components vs custom components Reason – EMS’s don’t want to be stuck with un-used inventory of custom components that they can’t use for a other projects EMS’s get 6 month rolling customer production forecast, with <1 month order commitments This un-used “custom inventory” could put a big bite into the razor thin margins of EMS’s
15	Paradigm Shifters Global war on terror EMS/ODM growth – who is the customer? Software definable/configurable radios Fuel cells 24 hour per day design, development & manufacturing cycles through globalization of resources Full use of the WEB for communication, development, design, manufacturing, sales, support. Increased global pressure for ecologically sound practices.
16	And finally, your ultimate customer….
17	Conclusions Packaging requirements for wireless applications: Cost, cost, cost Time to market Reduced size, weight, volume Increased cost effective integration Reduce power consumption Cost, cost, cost Time to market And finally, a roadmap to ongoing cost reduction… Which wireless markets will your company, your products or you, support in the future?
18	Thank You for your Attention Don Brown Director, IWPC TEL: 215-293-9000 donbrown@iwpc.org www.iwpc.org